MOVIES: THE BOX OFFICE THREAD

[Mann]

Alright, let's talk about the Box office in America and the world for movies. Predict the flops, success and such.

This week, The Passion of the Christ makes it to 17 million more, making it the 8th highest grossing film in America.

[RollaFett]

Yeah, that's impressive. Although I didn't think it would be a flop, I certainly did't think it would make that much moolah.

Bad opening weekend for 'The Alamo'. Projected $9.2 million. Looks like another 'Master and Commander'. Great reviews, but nobody wants to see it.

[RollaFett]

Box office prediction- 'The Punisher' will be a complete and total flop.

[Mann]

Master and Commander had greaat Reviews, and a decent box office opening. The Alamo has neither.

[Javen]

Originally posted by GollaFett@Apr 11 2004, 05:41 PM
Box office prediction- 'The Punisher' will be a complete and total flop.
I agree along with Kill Bill 2.

[Mann]

Originally posted by Javen+Apr 11 2004, 11:22 PM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Javen @ Apr 11 2004, 11:22 PM)</div><div class='quotemain'> <!--QuoteBegin-GollaFett@Apr 11 2004, 05:41 PM
Box office prediction- 'The Punisher' will be a complete and total flop.
I agree along with Kill Bill 2. [/b][/quote]
hahahaha, too late. Kill Bill 1 made all their money back.

[Javen]

Actually it just barley broke even. Production was 55 million and Marketing 25 million. And in America it has only made 69.9 million, so you do the math. PLus QT only gets som much of ticket sales.

[Mann]

actually it made 108 world wide, you do the math style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif

and We have yet to see if that was the budget for just that movi or both films.

[brookie]

why is it so important how much a movie makes? in all seriousness.
i never really cared .
why do you all?
im not trying to be mean, im curious

[Javen]

I don't care myself either. I mean the movie Open Range was good, yet it didn't make a ton of cash. It's about if you like the movie or not really.

[Mann]

Originally posted by brookie@Apr 11 2004, 11:34 PM
why is it so important how much a movie makes? in all seriousness.
i never really cared .
why do you all?
im not trying to be mean, im curious
As a soon to be filmmaker style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif It makes alot of difference. But it also determines a film's popularity and longetivity.

[Seanakin]

I guess people care because it's called "Show BUSINESS" for a reason. You think people make movies as an offering to their Muse? style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[brookie]

Originally posted by Mann+Apr 11 2004, 06:36 PM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mann @ Apr 11 2004, 06:36 PM)</div><div class='quotemain'> <!--QuoteBegin-brookie@Apr 11 2004, 11:34 PM
why is it so important how much a movie makes? in all seriousness.
i never really cared .
why do you all?
im not trying to be mean, im curious
As a soon to be filmmaker style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif It makes alot of difference. But it also determines a film's popularity and longetivity. [/b][/quote]
yes, but so what if a movie is popular, are you not going to like a film because no one saw it? i could care less how much money kill bill or punisher makes , i just dont get it style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/giveup.gif

[Seanakin]

I know it's true that not all the best movies were big money-makers, and also that not all the biggest money-makers were truly great movies. I think it's interesting to watch because it's a measure of what people are wanting to watch at a particular time. Watch that enough, and you can start to predict what kind of crap will be coming down the pike to a theater near you. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

[Mann]

Originally posted by brookie+Apr 11 2004, 11:40 PM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(brookie @ Apr 11 2004, 11:40 PM)</div><div class='quotemain'> Originally posted by Mann@Apr 11 2004, 06:36 PM
<!--QuoteBegin-brookie@Apr 11 2004, 11:34 PM
why is it so important how much a movie makes? in all seriousness.
i never really cared .
why do you all?
im not trying to be mean, im curious
As a soon to be filmmaker style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif It makes alot of difference. But it also determines a film's popularity and longetivity.
yes, but so what if a movie is popular, are you not going to like a film because no one saw it? i could care less how much money kill bill or punisher makes , i just dont get it style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/giveup.gif [/b][/quote]
Welll some people do,. That's why boxofficemojo was created. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif

Its a hobby for some, like Oscars and other things.

[Justin]

Originally posted by GollaFett@Apr 11 2004, 10:41 PM
Box office prediction- 'The Punisher' will be a complete and total flop.
You just WANT it to be a complete and total flop!

[RollaFett]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'> Justin Posted on Apr 11 2004, 09:18 PM


QUOTE (GollaFett @ Apr 11 2004, 10:41 PM)
Box office prediction- 'The Punisher' will be a complete and total flop.


You just WANT it to be a complete and total flop! [/b][/quote]

Not true. I was a huge fan of the original 'Punisher' comic series from the late 80's- mid-90's, and would like nothing more than to see a great film version of it, however, I don't feel as though it is a story easily translated to film. I cannot see this film being a whole lot more than your usual Segal/Van Damme/Shwarzenegger/Stallone/Willis action/revenge flick. And I don't feel as though that type of film has much of a chance at being popular and making money. I've discussed this in slightly more depth in 'The Punisher' movie thread, by the way.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>brookie Posted on Apr 11 2004, 06:34 PM
why is it so important how much a movie makes? in all seriousness.
i never really cared .
why do you all?
im not trying to be mean, im curious [/b][/quote]

Good question, and I don't really have much of an answer, besides simply being fascinated with the whole process. I certainly don't need a movie to do well at the box office to decide whether or not I'll see it (the fact I've been a Kevin Smith fan from the very beginning should tell you that), but I am pleased when a movie I like does well financially.
Sometimes, doing good box office directly leads to a sequel, and depending upon the type of film, I'd be excitied about that sequel.
Here's a good example: 'Blade Runner' is widey regarded as a pretty damn fine film, I love it. That said, it did extremely poor at the box office. Had it done well, it certainly left enough at the end of the film where a sequel could've been made. I'm not saying that a sequel would've been a great idea, but we'll never know because nobody saw the original in theaters to begin with. Now imagine if 'Raiders of the Lost Ark' suffered that same fate, that it failed at the box office. Sure, we would've been spared having to see 'Temple of Doom', but we also would've been kept from the great 'Last Crusade'.
I may be babbling a bit at this point, but am I making any sense?

[Tovor]

Sure, you're making plenty of sense.

[Vibroblade]

Like Mann, it's sorta a hobby for me....that's the best answer I can give.

Like Sean said, I understand that good movies can do poorly and bad movies do well, but an intellegent person with an open mind can understand that BO doesn't directly correlate to the quality of a film.

[brookie]

Originally posted by GollaFett@Apr 11 2004, 10:52 PM
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'> Justin* Posted on Apr 11 2004, 09:18 PM* * *


* QUOTE (GollaFett @ Apr 11 2004, 10:41 PM)
Box office prediction- 'The Punisher' will be a complete and total flop.*


You just WANT it to be a complete and total flop!*

Not true. I was a huge fan of the original 'Punisher' comic series from the late 80's- mid-90's, and would like nothing more than to see a great film version of it, however, I don't feel as though it is a story easily translated to film. I cannot see this film being a whole lot more than your usual Segal/Van Damme/Shwarzenegger/Stallone/Willis action/revenge flick. And I don't feel as though that type of film has much of a chance at being popular and making money. I've discussed this in slightly more depth in 'The Punisher' movie thread, by the way.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>brookie Posted on Apr 11 2004, 06:34 PM
* why is it so important how much a movie makes? in all seriousness.
i never really cared .
why do you all?
im not trying to be mean, im curious [/b][/quote]

Good question, and I don't really have much of an answer, besides simply being fascinated with the whole process. I certainly don't need a movie to do well at the box office to decide whether or not I'll see it (the fact I've been a Kevin Smith fan from the very beginning should tell you that), but I am pleased when a movie I like does well financially.
Sometimes, doing good box office directly leads to a sequel, and depending upon the type of film, I'd be excitied about that sequel.
Here's a good example: 'Blade Runner' is widey regarded as a pretty damn fine film, I love it. That said, it did extremely poor at the box office. Had it done well, it certainly left enough at the end of the film where a sequel could've been made. I'm not saying that a sequel would've been a great idea, but we'll never know because nobody saw the original in theaters to begin with. Now imagine if 'Raiders of the Lost Ark' suffered that same fate, that it failed at the box office. Sure, we would've been spared having to see 'Temple of Doom', but we also would've been kept from the great 'Last Crusade'.
I may be babbling a bit at this point, but am I making any sense? [/b][/quote]
i understand, great answer!
ill check in from time to time style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif

[Mann]

Originally posted by Vibroblade@Apr 12 2004, 05:15 PM
Like Mann, it's sorta a hobby for me....that's the best answer I can give.

Like Sean said, I understand that good movies can do poorly and bad movies do well, but an intellegent person with an open mind can understand that BO doesn't directly correlate to the quality of a film.
but see alot of good movies are low budgeted. And when you see the good movie not making stellar numbers but decent because of the word-of-mouth from critics and others that saw it.

the HUlk I think was a big indicator of word-of-mouth. It opens big to massive hype, then the second week word is that the movie was bad and people didn't go back. It was basically suffering Godzilla-like backlash.

[Siamese Sith]

Sup guys!
I don't think the Alamo will do well either, I think Hollywood is in flux right now....they played out the Super hero genre so Punisher and S2 probably won't do as well as the super hero flicks of the past few years.
I think Roland Emmerichs disaster movie Day After Tommorow will do well, and we will see the next big rehash of disaster flicks like Posiedon Adventure & Towering Inferno...

[Javen]

I hope the movie Man On Fire does well next weekend. I am a big Denzel fan. In fact there are three movies next week that deal with revenge.

The Punisher
Man On Fire
Kill Bill vol 2

[Siamese Sith]

The Punisher V <----flop
Kill Bill vol 2 V
Man On Fire ^ <----not flop

[Mann]

Kill Bill is getting too much press to flop. I think it will get over 20 Mil this weekend, with the DVD in release today.

Man on Fire comes out the 23rd. It wont do as well as many think. Denzel has not had the best track record for financially successful movies. Its also a remake, which is hard to see doing well.

[Javen]

Hehas five Oscar nominations and two wins as well as innumerable other awards from all over the globe and he made his debut as a director last year with Antwone Fisher. I do believe he has an audiance and a very good track record.

[Mann]

Originally posted by Javen@Apr 13 2004, 08:21 PM
Hehas five Oscar nominations and two wins as well as innumerable other awards from all over the globe and he made his debut as a director last year with Antwone Fisher. I do believe he has an audiance and a very good track record.
He does have an audience, but his movies don't have the kind of Box Office that other stars have. He's got his oscars, but when has an oscar actually meant he will have big movies? The smaller movies hardly get seen, and he does alot of films where he is good and effective, but not as exposed as he could be. Antwone Fisher did well, but not as well as some had predicted.

[Javen]

It's all in what is defined success. A movie now days is put up so high on a petistile, that everyone thinks a movie needs to gross 300 million. When it doesn't. I think only where Denzel fails is he takes too many roles with life lessons. He needs to expand some. But, still I will see the movie because I am a fan.

[Mann]

well Javen this is a Box office thread, so how his movie does BO wise is what I am talking about. His last movie topped out at 41 mil with a budget of 50 mil and marketing of 25 mil. That's a failure.

John Q was a success, with 71 mil in the US and 30 overseas with a budget of 36 mil and 25 mil marketing.

Training Day made aboout the same, and take into account that John Q spent more on Denzel's pay than anything (20 mil) so he is successful I agree. He's just not a box office dynamite.

[Javen]

Originally posted by Mann@Apr 13 2004, 06:01 PM
well Javen this is a Box office thread, so how his movie does BO wise is what I am talking about.
Well excuse me master

[Mann]

Originally posted by Javen+Apr 13 2004, 11:03 PM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Javen @ Apr 13 2004, 11:03 PM)</div><div class='quotemain'> <!--QuoteBegin-Mann@Apr 13 2004, 06:01 PM
well Javen this is a Box office thread, so how his movie does BO wise is what I am talking about.
Well excuse me master [/b][/quote]
you are excused. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

[flo fett]

Play nice now kiddies style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif (it's like watching two tigers pace around each other with you two!)

[Javen]

Originally posted by Mann+Apr 13 2004, 06:09 PM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mann @ Apr 13 2004, 06:09 PM)</div><div class='quotemain'> Originally posted by Javen@Apr 13 2004, 11:03 PM
<!--QuoteBegin-Mann@Apr 13 2004, 06:01 PM
well Javen this is a Box office thread, so how his movie does BO wise is what I am talking about.
Well excuse me master
you are excused. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif [/b][/quote]
your not style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

[flo fett]

*glares at Javen*

[Mann]

*bows to flo* will you promise beat us if we are bad? style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

but honestly, who does anyone think is the most successful star ever?

[RollaFett]

I agree, Mann. Although I am a big fan of Denzel, he certainly is far from guaranteed box office. One of his best films, 'Devil in a Blue Dress' in 1995, made just over $16 million. A total flop, and I loved the film. The movie was based on a popular detective novel series written by Walter Mosley, and it was hoped that it could be turned into a franchise, but with $16 million for the 1st flick, the franchise was scrapped.
That's just one example.
Coming off his Oscar win, 'Antoine Fisher' bearly cracked $21 million and 'Out of Time' took in a little over $41 million.
Anyway, just felt like bringing more numbers into this.
Point is, Denzel doesn't mean huge numbers, but it also doesn't mean David Arquette numbers either, so studios will, of course, want him.
Alright, i'm done.

[Mann]

Well its Friday, time for the BO to come alive again, with Action films dominating the BO.

Kill Bill will win the week over
The Punisher will get second

[Trilogist]

Originally posted by Mann@Apr 13 2004, 05:27 PM
*bows to flo* will you promise beat us if we are bad? style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

but honestly, who does anyone think is the most successful star ever?
Harrison Ford.

[Mann]

oooh, The Passion nose dves with an 82% drop from last friday. It could rebound today.

[kopernikuz]

It could, but probably won't... it had it's run... and it was a good one. Clearly Kill Bill will take #1 and anything else could be #2 or #3 or whatever, but they won't have the staying power POTC did. It has to leave theaters eventually... it'll start this weekend.

[Mann]

well seeing as it had the second highest 7th week in history, I thought it might be like Titanic and stick around for a while longer (that friggin movie just wouldn't leave!)

Kill Bill already won Friday with 10 million. It will get about 30 million this weekend. Punisher will get about 15 million.

[kopernikuz]

It'd be neat if it hung around that long... any idea what Titanic went up against those extra weeks?

[Mann]

In its run, Titanic stomped all over everything. I think the studios pushed back some bigger movie in the hopes that they whould have to face Titanic. the only movie to beat it after weeks at #1 was Lost in Space. It still made a grip of money after that, but I agree that the Passion doesn't look likely to make that big of a killing. It will probably make 400 million.

[Mann]

Estimates are in, here are the top ten:

1 N Kill Bill Vol. 2 Mira. $25,565,000 - 2,971 - $8,604 $25,565,000 - / - 1
2 N The Punisher Lions $14,000,000 - 2,649 - $5,285 $14,000,000 $33 / - 1
3 3 Johnson Family Vacation FoxS $6,425,000 -31.5% 1,326 +9 $4,845 $21,453,000 $12 / $8 2
4 2 Hellboy SonR $5,700,000 -47.3% 2,897 -146 $1,967 $50,357,000 $66 / $25 3
5 6 Home on the Range BV $5,404,000 -33.3% 2,735 -323 $1,975 $37,679,000 - / - 3
6 7 Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed WB $5,135,000 -35.9% 2,810 -320 $1,827 $72,216,000 - / - 4
7 5 Walking Tall MGM $4,600,000 -45.5% 2,444 -392 $1,882 $36,633,000 $46 / $25 3
8 9 Ella Enchanted Mira. $4,418,000 -28.4% 1,939 +8 $2,278 $13,757,000 $31 / $15 2
9 1 The Passion of the Christ NM $4,193,000 -72.4% 2,848 -392 $1,472 $360,904,000 $30 / $20 8
10 4 The Alamo BV $4,052,000 -55.6% 2,609 - $1,553 $16,316,000 $107 / $30 2

[Vibroblade]

Very poor showing for the POTC.....It won't make 400 million for certain.....Should end up very close to the total for ROTK.

[Mann]

It could build up to get very close over the weekend, but it will top out at about 400 I think. Any more religious holidays ? style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif

[Vibroblade]

You might be right Mann, but my instinct is to say that POTC will fade VERY fast now.

Summer season is approaching and the blockbusters are just around the corner. Given the steep decline ( I know last week was a Holiday, but this is still a disappointing showing ), look for POTC to lose a bunch of screens over the next 2 weeks and that will effectively end it's run for 400. I would expect POTC to end closer to 380 million than 400 million.

[RollaFett]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'> Vibroblade Posted on Apr 18 2004, 11:52 AM


Very poor showing for the POTC.....It won't make 400 million for certain.....Should end up very close to the total for ROTK. [/b][/quote]

I wouldn't say that it was a poor showing. Hell, it's been out nearly 2 months, that's not bad. It was bound to drop off at some point. Remeber, if it wasn't for Easter last week, it wouldn't have gotten back to #1 again. It was already dropping before then, last week was a fluke.
I'm actually surprised with the modest success The Punisher had. I predicted a total box office no more than $25 million, but with $14 million in it's opening weekend, it aoppears as though it will surpass that.

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>I wouldn't say that it was a poor showing. [/b][/quote]

Perhaps it was a poor choice of words..What I meant, was for those that hoped it might beat Spiderman, it was a poor showing. Even with the holliday weekend factored in, I was surprised by the drop...almost 75%.

[Streen]

It appears Johnson Family Vacation did pretty well for a comedy in the middle of so many other blockbusters. Cool.....

[Mann]

Originally posted by Vibroblade@Apr 18 2004, 10:49 PM
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>I wouldn't say that it was a poor showing.

Perhaps it was a poor choice of words..What I meant, was for those that hoped it might beat Spiderman, it was a poor showing. Even with the holliday weekend factored in, I was surprised by the drop...almost 75%. [/b][/quote]
yeah, but it all depends ont eh amount of theaters they show it in. If its still 2000+ then we could have some studio/distribritor rush to the 400 million mark.

[Mann]

Originally posted by Streen@Apr 18 2004, 10:52 PM
It appears Johnson Family Vacation did pretty well for a comedy in the middle of so many other blockbusters. Cool.....
well, its a movie geared toward one specific group, so it is going to do well.

[Mann]

Oh Javen, Kill Bill cost 30 million each to produce. The first was not a flop.

[Mann]

Place your bets people, this week:

13 going on 30
Man on Fire

Boht are unoriginal films, but 13 seems to have the upper hand since it kind of has a formula many people like.

Man on Fire will open big, but pull in Out of Time numbers. Denzel is playing the hero again, but not very likable.

[JediJaina]

I haven't seen much I want to see right now.

[RollaFett]

Man on Fire edges out 13 Going on 30! $22.7 mil to $21 mil. Kill Bill 2 and The Punisher take signifigant nosedives.

[DarthAnakin]

Originally posted by JediJaina@Apr 24 2004, 12:07 AM
I haven't seen much I want to see right now.
Agreed, the next movies I wan't to go see are Van Helsing and Troy.

[RollaFett]

Ahhh...just as I predicted, 'Troy' has an unimpressive debut. Just $49 million. Sounds good until you consider the budget thatw as between $150-$200 million and other blockbusters coming out right after it.

[RollaFett]

Mann, if you still have interest in this thread, you may want to update the dates.

[Mann]

Originally posted by GollaFett@May 17 2004, 12:45 AM
Ahhh...just as I predicted, 'Troy' has an unimpressive debut. Just $49 million. Sounds good until you consider the budget thatw as between $150-$200 million and other blockbusters coming out right after it.
unimpressive? The second-highest grossing debut for an r-rated film in May is unimpressive?

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>unimpressive? The second-highest grossing debut for an r-rated film in May is unimpressive? [/b][/quote]

Given the hype, I'd say it was somewhat disappointing to the studio execs, so I agree with Gollafett.

The R-rated thing is overrated these days.

[kopernikuz]

Yeah, it was disappointing to studio execs no matter what you think about the take. They fully expected more from this, and it'll have to do better in the coming weeks with stiff competition to make it a success. Setting a record of R rated movies in May means nothing if they can't make their money back. You can't spend a worthless May R-Rating record on more movies... style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rolleyes.gif

[Justin]

Yeah, that's chump change for summer blockbusters.

[Siamese Sith]

CoR will be the big winner this summer me thinks. I have stated over at PDT that I am really not that excited about the spidey sequel and after seeing the trailer for CoR I have a good feeling the trilogy will be made.
I was unfortunate enough to have seen the DAT preview on Fox the other night style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/barf.gif Dennis Quaid jumps a 25 foot ravine as the ground falls out from beneath his feet style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/barf.gif style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/barf.gif

[Darth Darthy]

I reckon the studio are ploping their pants because they know Day After Tomorrow is gonna get crap reviews and word of mouth will consist of "nice graphics but it sucked". Mark my words, this'll be this years Godzilla, where instead of wanting the characters to live you'll either be impartial or want them all to die a slow, nasty death.

[JediJaina]

Originally posted by Darth Darthy@May 17 2004, 05:44 PM
I reckon the studio are ploping their pants because they know Day After Tomorrow is gonna get crap reviews and word of mouth will consist of "nice graphics but it sucked". Mark my words, this'll be this years Godzilla, where instead of wanting the characters to live you'll either be impartial or want them all to die a slow, nasty death.
Isn't this movie being made by the same people that did Godzilla?

[Dutch]

What is CoR?

Shrek 2 will make a ton methinks

[RollaFett]

Yeah, what is 'CoR'?

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'> Mann Posted on May 17 2004, 03:35 AM


unimpressive? The second-highest grossing debut for an r-rated film in May is unimpressive? [/b][/quote]

Check the budget, Mann, if you think it'll make that money back you're crazy. The one positive it has going for it at this point is the strong overseas numbers it has thus far. Overall though, it must be viewed as a disappointment.

[kopernikuz]

CoR = Chronicles of Riddick

[Mann]

Originally posted by kopernikuz@May 17 2004, 05:01 PM
Yeah, it was disappointing to studio execs no matter what you think about the take. They fully expected more from this, and it'll have to do better in the coming weeks with stiff competition to make it a success. Setting a record of R rated movies in May means nothing if they can't make their money back. You can't spend a worthless May R-Rating record on more movies... style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rolleyes.gif
From Boxofficemojo

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>"It's right along the lines of where we expected it," Warner Bros.' executive VP and general sales manager of domestic distribution Jeff Goldstein told Box Office Mojo. "We were looking at Gladiator, which was the biggest R-rated, non-sequel opening in May ($34.8 million). If we got over $40 million, we'd be thrilled."

[/b][/quote]

And this movie appealed to males and females equally. So I expect it to make lots of cash in the weeks to come. Its not going to be the highest grossing film ever made, but if it makes Gladiator like dollars than its made its budget.

[kopernikuz]

Lets be honest here... Gladiator was also released in about 500 less theaters at about 2940 and was eventually raised to 3200 after a few weeks. Gladiator was also still showing in regular theaters as late as August of that year. Will this happen with Troy? Who knows, maybe...

Also, Gladiator was #1 two weeks in a row... having only to go up against Battlefield Earth the week after, so hardly competition for seats. Shrek 2 will likely get a lot of family viewing this weekend, always hard on R rated films, but I don't know if Shrek will be #1 or not... likely though, it's getting enough advertising, lol.

I don't think Troy will boast Gladiator numbers... this isn't your typical May release month. Though Gladiator got a significant resurgence when it was nominated for Oscars. I saw it three times in the theater myself. Will Troy get nominated? Having not seen it, I can't say... but it looks like an Oscar like film. Any thoughts? The Summer films are starting earlier and earlier. I'd like to see it resurge. The only major non-family competition coming up is The Day After Tomorrow... which has an advertising juggernaut working overtime, don't know if it will pay off or not...

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>Lets be honest here... Gladiator was also released in about 500 less theaters at about 2940 and was eventually raised to 3200 after a few weeks. Gladiator was also still showing in regular theaters as late as August of that year. Will this happen with Troy? Who knows, maybe...

Also, Gladiator was #1 two weeks in a row... having only to go up against Battlefield Earth the week after, so hardly competition for seats. Shrek 2 will likely get a lot of family viewing this weekend, always hard on R rated films, but I don't know if Shrek will be #1 or not... likely though, it's getting enough advertising, lol.

I don't think Troy will boast Gladiator numbers... this isn't your typical May release month. Though Gladiator got a significant resurgence when it was nominated for Oscars. I saw it three times in the theater myself. Will Troy get nominated? Having not seen it, I can't say... but it looks like an Oscar like film. Any thoughts? The Summer films are starting earlier and earlier. I'd like to see it resurge. The only major non-family competition coming up is The Day After Tomorrow... which has an advertising juggernaut working overtime, don't know if it will pay off or not...
[/b][/quote]

Excellent post Kop. If I may I'm going to add a few thoughts to your own.

First, although Gladiator and Troy have many similarities, there's one great difference. Troy has not been well received by the critics. Word of mouth can certainly overcome bad critical reviews but only time will tell if that's the case. My gut reaction is that the word of mouth on Troy will NOT be good enough. From what I've read, Troy is around a B to B+ movie in the masses eyes and I just don't think it will maintain like Gladiator did.

Shrek will DOMINATE the BO this week. Look for rather large numbers in the 100 million range ( likely higher ) for the 5 day haul. That's competition of a major sort. What's even worse for Troy is that Shrek appeals to adults and children. So, it will affect the core audience unlike most animated films.

That's not to say Troy will be a bomb, just not as big as I originally thought. Before release, I'd have said 250-300 million, now I'd say less than 175 million domestic is very likely.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>It's right along the lines of where we expected it," Warner Bros.' executive VP and general sales manager of domestic distribution Jeff Goldstein told Box Office Mojo. "We were looking at Gladiator, which was the biggest R-rated, non-sequel opening in May ($34.8 million). If we got over $40 million, we'd be thrilled."[/b][/quote]

This may be true Mann, but of course the studio execs were going to say that so it really doesn't mean much.

[Mann]

I really don't think Troy's BO will be as affected by the haul of Shrek as you say. I'm sure that it can pull in Gladiator numbers, such as the next two weekend, while it wont be #1, it will have in the double digits. Expect say 20+ million next weekend since the word of mouth from most people is that its is a good movie. So with that add the weekday totals and you have over 100 million already, and then it starts paking on the weekly grosses to make a little more until it gets is budget back. Now with making back advertising? I think the international haul will make that up.

[RollaFett]

The simple point is that it will not be the runaway blockbuster a studio expects with that kind of budget, period. A bomb? No, of course not. Really what the studio expected? hardly.

[JediJaina]

They should have put Shrek 2 in June. All kids would be out of school then.

[Mann]

Originally posted by GollaFett@May 19 2004, 03:17 AM
The simple point is that it will not be the runaway blockbuster a studio expects with that kind of budget, period. A bomb? No, of course not. Really what the studio expected? hardly.
oh come on! R-rated films are never THAT big unless you have the unanticipated success of a Beverly Hills Cop or the ultra fan based hype of The Matrix Reloaded.

The most expensive movies (singularly, not series) are Titanic and Waterworld. Titanic is the highest grossing film of all time with a decent take in the first week and it kept on piling it up. Waterworld failed. Both were PG-13 films though (though they had elements of r-ratings in them). We need to wait and see next week's take before we say if it wont make enough.

[Master Cephus]

I will have to agree with Vibroblade on this...

Shrek will definately take away Troy's audience...You have families coming and also the fact that Shrek is liked by adults and kids. You can't forget the date factor as well. The GF will more than likely wanna go see a fun comedy any day over an old school bloody epic (even if it has Brad Pitt) style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

[JediJaina]

Originally posted by Master Cephus@May 18 2004, 11:56 PM
I will have to agree with Vibroblade on this...

Shrek will definately take away Troy's audience...You have families coming and also the fact that Shrek is liked by adults and kids. You can't forget the date factor as well. The GF will more than likely wanna go see a fun comedy any day over an old school bloody epic (even if it has Brad Pitt) style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif


.Troy has plenty of eye candy that I would rather see than Shrek (I wasn't a fan of the first one). And I'm more fond of Eric Bana and Orlando Bloom than Brad Pitt.

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>.Troy has plenty of eye candy that I would rather see than Shrek (I wasn't a fan of the first one). And I'm more fond of Eric Bana and Orlando Bloom than Brad Pitt. [/b][/quote]

Undoubtedly they're are others that feel the same, but Shrek is far more popular than Troy with the majority.

Not that I've got a mark on Troy. I want to ( and plan to ) see it. I just follow movies pretty closely and know that Shrek has a chance to be the biggest blockbuster of the year. Not that it WILL be the biggest blockbuster, but it has a chance. That's why the release date is in May. To take full advantage of summer's biggest two holiday's Memorial, and than the 4th. They know full well what the potential of Shrek is.

I admit that I am a bit surprised that Spidey is coming out so late. The last one benefitted from the early May release and I believe this one could as well.

[Mann]

Vibro, the only thing that came in May that year was Star Wars. Spiderman picked its spot well, and had NO competition. With June they will wade out the Harry POtter and Shreks and make their money in July (a la PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN).

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>the only thing that came in May that year was Star Wars. [/b][/quote]

That's a BIG only Mann....I suspect that if Spidey II had released the first week in May, Shrek would not have released yesterday.....So, it would have had little competition until Memorial weekend.

[Mann]

Originally posted by Vibroblade@May 20 2004, 05:43 PM
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>the only thing that came in May that year was Star Wars.

That's a BIG only Mann....I suspect that if Spidey II had released the first week in May, Shrek would not have released yesterday.....So, it would have had little competition until Memorial weekend. [/b][/quote]
Apparently it wasn't that Big of an Only, as it appears Spiderman surpassed AOTC without much disray, not to mention it had the highest gorssing second weekend ever i think.

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>Apparently it wasn't that Big of an Only, as it appears Spiderman surpassed AOTC without much disray, not to mention it had the highest gorssing second weekend ever i think. [/b][/quote]

Which was exactly my point Mann. Spidey grossed 400 million and had a 300 million movie opening two weeks after it. Obviously, AOTC didn't hurt it much. Please read my original post again.

So, are you trying to say that Shrek is more dangerous to open against than a SW movie?

[Vibroblade]

12 million opening for Shrek II....only the 14th biggest Wednesday opening. Somewhat surprising and it appears that Shrek will fall far below my 100 million 5 day estimate.

[Mann]

Originally posted by Vibroblade@May 21 2004, 05:09 PM
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>Apparently it wasn't that Big of an Only, as it appears Spiderman surpassed AOTC without much disray, not to mention it had the highest gorssing second weekend ever i think.

Which was exactly my point Mann. Spidey grossed 400 million and had a 300 million movie opening two weeks after it. Obviously, AOTC didn't hurt it much. Please read my original post again.

So, are you trying to say that Shrek is more dangerous to open against than a SW movie? [/b][/quote]
Shrek appeals to more people than A SW movie, yes.

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>Shrek appeals to more people than A SW movie, yes. [/b][/quote]

Stop it Mann, you're killing me! Seriously I just laughed so hard I shot Pepsi out my nose...

[Mann]

Originally posted by Vibroblade@May 22 2004, 05:56 AM
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>Shrek appeals to more people than A SW movie, yes.

Stop it Mann, you're killing me! Seriously I just laughed so hard I shot Pepsi out my nose... [/b][/quote]
um, where have you been? Shrek DOES have a much wider appeal than Star Wars. For instance, Shrek can appeal to just about EVERYONE, and does, while Star Wars has a wide range, the older generation of people do not get as drawn into it.

[Vibroblade]

lol

yea, you'll see a lot of sixty y/o's watching Shrek....lol

[RollaFett]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'> Mann Posted on May 18 2004, 10:56 PM


The most expensive movies (singularly, not series) are Titanic and Waterworld. Titanic is the highest grossing film of all time with a decent take in the first week and it kept on piling it up. [/b][/quote]

Lest not forget that Titantic came out in the dead of winter with absolutely no competition. If that was a summertime release, it still would've been a huge hit, but $600 million, I think not.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'> Mann Posted on May 18 2004, 10:56 PM
QUOTE (GollaFett @ May 19 2004, 03:17 AM)
The simple point is that it will not be the runaway blockbuster a studio expects with that kind of budget, period. A bomb? No, of course not. Really what the studio expected? hardly.


oh come on! R-rated films are never THAT big unless you have the unanticipated success of a Beverly Hills Cop or the ultra fan based hype of The Matrix Reloaded. [/b][/quote]

Ugh, you're really a stubborn one, aren't you? You actually come close to making a point there, except that no studio is ever going to fork over that kind of money unless they do, in fact, expect a huge opening.

[Mann]

Originally posted by Vibroblade@May 22 2004, 07:05 PM
lol

yea, you'll see a lot of sixty y/o's watching Shrek....lol
um, yeah I do. Wait when the ratio comes out. It will probably be wide spread all over.

[Mann]

Originally posted by GollaFett@May 22 2004, 07:22 PM
Ugh, you're really a stubborn one, aren't you? You actually come close to making a point there, except that no studio is ever going to fork over that kind of money unless they do, in fact, expect a huge opening.
Yes, I am stubborn, and so are most people who know that the studio said they expected that much money (and that they actually did better than estimates said) and 45 million is pretty huge. in fact its doing better than Gladiator at the moment.

[JKRich]

Originally posted by Mann@May 21 2004, 05:32 PM


Shrek appeals to more people than A SW movie, yes.
Although Shrek does appeal to alot of people young and old alike.It is nowhere near any SW movie in it's appeal.Everyone wants to see SW for godssake whatother movie is talked about Years before its released?Nothing is nitpicked or analyzed like SW.It is clearly in a league of its own!!

[Mann]

Originally posted by JKRich+May 22 2004, 10:13 PM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(JKRich @ May 22 2004, 10:13 PM)</div><div class='quotemain'> <!--QuoteBegin-Mann@May 21 2004, 05:32 PM


Shrek appeals to more people than A SW movie, yes.
Although Shrek does appeal to alot of people young and old alike.It is nowhere near any SW movie in it's appeal.Everyone wants to see SW for godssake whatother movie is talked about Years before its released?Nothing is nitpicked or analyzed like SW.It is clearly in a league of its own!! [/b][/quote]
My grandparents refuse to see Star Wars, saying its just not their kind of movie. This is the grandmother who loves movies like The Mask of Zorro and anything that has to deal with action, but she saw the first SW movie when it first came out and said she thoht it was alright, but she wouldn't see a sequel. Well she went with my brother to see TPM when it came out and now she REFUSES to see the others, saying TPM was one ofthe most overrated and stupidest movies ever made.

BTW, I also have friends who say that SW is crap Yes, my confidents say the ENTIRE saga is crap. They don't want to see the movies, but thye say its crap. These are high schoolers mind you. They are also going to take a group of us to see Shrek 2, because so it seems in a newspaper poll at my school, Shrek 2 is the most anticipated movie of the summer, with Spiderman 2 2nd.

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>They are also going to take a group of us to see Shrek 2, because so it seems in a newspaper poll at my school, Shrek 2 is the most anticipated movie of the summer, with Spiderman 2 2nd. [/b][/quote]

And based on such a scientific poll one can certainly predict with pinpoint accuracy the opinions of the population as a whole.....

[RollaFett]

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!
Well said.

[JKRich]

Mann.. the sad thing about that is these are the future of our country who feel that way.Its scary too see the intellectual power in todays school system.God help us all.

[Mann]

Originally posted by Vibroblade@May 23 2004, 12:52 AM
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>They are also going to take a group of us to see Shrek 2, because so it seems in a newspaper poll at my school, Shrek 2 is the most anticipated movie of the summer, with Spiderman 2 2nd.

And based on such a scientific poll one can certainly predict with pinpoint accuracy the opinions of the population as a whole..... [/b][/quote]
You got anything better to say that SW is the most sought after movie of any year? cause Granted in 2002 it wasn't.

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>You got anything better to say that SW is the most sought after movie of any year?[/b][/quote]

I never said it was Mann....not anymore anyway.

I was saying that I thought it was more sought after than Shrek II. Looks like I was wrong...

I'm STUNNED by the weekend estimates for the movie. Wednesday and Thursday weren't particularly good, but the weekend numbers are phenomenal.

Friday: $28.4
Saturday: $44.8 ( biggest single day ever )
Sunday: 31.1 ( estimate only and will likely by higher )

Total weekend: $104.3
Total 5-day haul:$125.2

I should be noted that Shrek II also has the largest number of opening theaters ever. The first movie to have more than 4000 theaters ( there are no numbers as yet on the total number of screens ).

[Mann]

I also am impressed, I thought in the long run this movie would exceed mosdt films in gross as the first one did (the first one had like a 40 million opening, and a 240 million total in the US). ITs already made up the cost of production and marketing! Isn't this the same time Finding Nemo was released last year?

[Vibroblade]

It could be a 400 million movie with these numbers....Kiddy movies usually have long legs. Also, next weekend is the biggest movie weekend of the year, so it should be over 200 million after that ( and probably closer to 250 million when factoring in memorial Monday!)

[Justin]

That's insane.

[Mann]

Look at the Craze The Passion made, I think Shrek might give that movie a run for its money! Wouldn't that just make everyone's head spin?

[kopernikuz]

Originally posted by Mann@May 24 2004, 12:20 AM
Wouldn't that just make everyone's head spin?
Um, why? style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/huh.gif

[Mann]

Think of the headlines: Shrek is more popular than Jesus.

[Justin]

Is that supposed to be funny?

[Seanakin]

I get the joke, it was like when ABC's much ballyhooed 1995 Beatles TV special lost to ER in the ratings, and someone asked if it meant that George Clooney was more popular than Jesus Christ.

However, all this talk about some other film beating out Passion in the box office is just sour grapes by Hollywood's sore losers. The biggest of whom, incidentally, were behind Shrek 2.

[kopernikuz]

They already tried those type of headlines when Dawn of the Dead finally knocked Passion out of the #1 spot... Hell vs. Heaven and whatnot. But when all was said and done, Passion conquered death (Dawn of the Dead) and Hell (Hellboy) to be #1 again on Easter style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif. That's a better headline as it is.

Besides, no one expects Passion to be the top film of the year. And it's not even the top grossing film of all time... I guess Titanic is more popular then Jesus, eh? That's a silly notion... style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rolleyes.gif No one expected the Passion to do as well as it did, and no one expects that it will never be beaten... I doubt anyone would make the comparison.

Plus we all know kid movies have a better chance at box office bucks than R-rated ones... they have a wider audience.

[kopernikuz]

So what do y'all think about The Day After Tomorrow? Not what you think of the movie itself, but what do you think will happen? Will it have a huge weekend?

The buzz on it is pretty high, a lot of environmental groups are pushing it in the same way Christian groups pushed POTC, no lie. There's a big budget marketing group working on it, plus Al Gore and several environmentalists are launching grass-roots campaigns. Will this help or hurt... after all Al Gore backed Dean and look how many people backed off... LOL. Seriously though... there's a significant environmental push for this film.

Does this disaster flick have the stuff? Will it be on top the day after The Day After Tomorrow... and the day after that and the day after that?


On a side note... Troy dropped almost 50%... its a good thing it's doing better overseas... I wonder if it'll be all but forgotten this coming weekend, or will the Memorial Day movie weekend give it a boost?

[Justin]

I think The Day After Tomorrow could go either way. The effects look awesome, and Dennis Quaid kicks ass, but the movie was made by the guys who made Independence Day and Godzilla. Godzilla wasn't all that bad, but it wasn't very good either, and Independence Day was a joke.

Although they did make Stargate, which was pretty cool. So who knows.

[Mann]

Originally posted by kopernikuz@May 24 2004, 05:26 PM
Besides, no one expects Passion to be the top film of the year. And it's not even the top grossing film of all time... I guess Titanic is more popular then Jesus, eh? That's a silly notion... style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rolleyes.gif No one expected the Passion to do as well as it did, and no one expects that it will never be beaten... I doubt anyone would make the comparison.

Plus we all know kid movies have a better chance at box office bucks than R-rated ones... they have a wider audience.
Correction, no one EXPECTED The Passion to be the Top Grossing film of the year. When the numbers came in, look how people shifted and said it might be on track to surpass Titanic. Well it didn't, that's for sure, but it was hyped after opening weekend release.

Which means that Shrek is more popular than Jesus in movie terms. More people want to seee Shrek on the screen than Jesus, because it is more viewer friendly.

[Mann]

Originally posted by Justin@May 24 2004, 07:37 PM
, and Independence Day was a joke.
And thye were laughing all the way to the bank...

[RollaFett]

I'm predicting 'Day after Tomorrow' to be a lot like 'the Patriot'. It won't bomb, but it's not going to be as big as the studio needs it to be, either.

[kopernikuz]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>Which means that Shrek is more popular than Jesus in movie terms. More people want to seee Shrek on the screen than Jesus, because it is more viewer friendly.[/b][/quote]
I wrote something kind of rude, and thought better so I'm editing... suffice it to say Mann, I expect much more insightful movie discussion when I get here... this borders on the "just plain silly". When you were making the joke, it was one thing... now you are trying to defend it like it's truth... LOL. You should've let it go at the joke.

Besides, millions of people in America went to the theater on behalf of Shrek this weekend... billions of people around the world go to church on behalf of Jesus EVERY weekend. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rolleyes.gif

I suspect there will be quite a few other films that rival The Passion's numbers... is this really a revelation? Eventually that joke will be old. Wait... it kind of already is... style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

*prepares himself for the inevitable "Spiderman is more popular than Jesus" quip from Mann soon... *

[JKRich]

Originally posted by Mann+May 24 2004, 06:42 PM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mann @ May 24 2004, 06:42 PM)</div><div class='quotemain'> <!--QuoteBegin-kopernikuz@May 24 2004, 05:26 PM
Besides, no one expects Passion to be the top film of the year. And it's not even the top grossing film of all time... I guess Titanic is more popular then Jesus, eh? That's a silly notion... style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rolleyes.gif No one expected the Passion to do as well as it did, and no one expects that it will never be beaten... I doubt anyone would make the comparison.

Plus we all know kid movies have a better chance at box office bucks than R-rated ones... they have a wider audience.
Correction, no one EXPECTED The Passion to be the Top Grossing film of the year. When the numbers came in, look how people shifted and said it might be on track to surpass Titanic. Well it didn't, that's for sure, but it was hyped after opening weekend release.

Which means that Shrek is more popular than Jesus in movie terms. More people want to seee Shrek on the screen than Jesus, because it is more viewer friendly. [/b][/quote]
i think the subtitles for The Passion did it in for some. As far as Shrek goes it's a more friendly type movie and a whole lot simpler for the audience to watch.Thats not saying much for the audience but who said they were that bright?

[Vibroblade]

The violence and, more importantly the media hype of the violence, both hurt and helped the Passion. Had the movie been only marginally less violent, it would have made bigger numbers ( not that the gross wasn't impressive ). Also, the target audience is not one for repeat viewing and it's not exactly a NEW story.

Anyway, I could go on with many more reasons why Passion didn't make more but I don't see a reason. For a story as often told as the crucifixion of Christ to make 370 million is quite astounding. Comparisons to Shrek are, frankly, in bad taste and rather ludicrous.

[Mann]

Originally posted by kopernikuz@May 25 2004, 12:58 AM
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>Which means that Shrek is more popular than Jesus in movie terms. More people want to seee Shrek on the screen than Jesus, because it is more viewer friendly.
I wrote something kind of rude, and thought better so I'm editing... suffice it to say Mann, I expect much more insightful movie discussion when I get here... this borders on the "just plain silly". When you were making the joke, it was one thing... now you are trying to defend it like it's truth... LOL. You should've let it go at the joke.

Besides, millions of people in America went to the theater on behalf of Shrek this weekend... billions of people around the world go to church on behalf of Jesus EVERY weekend. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rolleyes.gif

I suspect there will be quite a few other films that rival The Passion's numbers... is this really a revelation? Eventually that joke will be old. Wait... it kind of already is... style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

*prepares himself for the inevitable "Spiderman is more popular than Jesus" quip from Mann soon... * [/b][/quote]
Kope

First you obviously didn't get the joke that I was making. I didn't seriously mean Jesus was any less popular than Shrek. Come on now Kope. I said in MOVIE TERMS (read it again, MOVIE TERMS) he is more popular. Shrek's story is just more likable, I'm not saying that the church of Shrek should be erected because of this weekend, but that Shrek 2 just appeals to more people than The Passion did.

[Mann]

Originally posted by Vibroblade@May 25 2004, 03:10 AM
The violence and, more importantly the media hype of the violence, both hurt and helped the Passion. Had the movie been only marginally less violent, it would have made bigger numbers ( not that the gross wasn't impressive ). Also, the target audience is not one for repeat viewing and it's not exactly a NEW story.

Anyway, I could go on with many more reasons why Passion didn't make more but I don't see a reason. For a story as often told as the crucifixion of Christ to make 370 million is quite astounding. Comparisons to Shrek are, frankly, in bad taste and rather ludicrous.
Comparisons are ludicrious, unless you are talking money, because that is where the only comparison can come by.

[kopernikuz]

Originally posted by Mann@May 24 2004, 11:04 PM
First you obviously didn't get the joke that I was making.
Um, obviously I did, maybe YOU should read the posts again... I said you should have left it at the joke instead of then trying to go on an "prove" your point somehow with the disclaimer "in movie terms" style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rolleyes.gif... it was just pointless.

Vibes hit the nail. There are numerous reasons Shrek is more popular... Heck, Shrek is more popular than Nemo, Neo, Maximus, William Wallace, Achilles, Van Helsing, ad nauseum... in movie terms. This is why there was no need to continue your argument by explaining that "in movie terms". The joke was what it was... when none of us found it that funny, you felt the need to "prove" it in "movie terms" and that's just silly.

It is an R movie, and as a self-proclaimed movie fan, you should know that automatically makes it less marketable to a wide audience than a G rated movie. Heck, the ratings alone explain... G allows a general audience while R is "restricted"... it should come as no surprise that MORE people will go see an unrestricted film. My kids didn't see Passion... they will see Shrek... there's FIVE more people seeing Shrek than saw Passion, right off the bat. Had The Passion been PG-13, that might have changed... scratch it... WOULD have changed. This isn't rocket science...

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>Comparisons are ludicrious, unless you are talking money, because that is where the only comparison can come by. [/b][/quote]

I can agree with that. Sorry about my original post, it didn't come out exactly the way I meant, and I wasn't really referring to just you. I was mostly pointing out that Shrek and Christ comparisons are ridiculous because Shrek is just a movie....

[Mann]

Originally posted by kopernikuz@May 25 2004, 12:03 PM
Vibes hit the nail. There are numerous reasons Shrek is more popular... Heck, Shrek is more popular than Nemo, Neo, Maximus, William Wallace, Achilles, Van Helsing, ad nauseum... in movie terms. This is why there was no need to continue your argument by explaining that "in movie terms". The joke was what it was... when none of us found it that funny, you felt the need to "prove" it in "movie terms" and that's just silly.

ok, first off you attacked the joke to begin with, how else could I have tried to prove it when you villianized a harmles play on words...

Secondly, movies about Jesus haven't been as popular till The Passion. Cases in point: CHRISTIAN MOVIES (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=christian.htm) , The Last Temptation of Christ (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=lasttemptationofchrist.htm).

[Justin]

Let's move on, please.

How do you guys think Spider-Man 2 will do? Any predictions?

[Mann]

NUMBER 2 MOVIE OF THE SUMMER I think. Actually, we may yet have a year where the top grossing films actually stay in the summer, since no LOTR movies are up in the winter.

[Justin]

What other big movies are coming out this summer?

[Mann]

The Day After Tomorrow, King Arthur, Alien Vs. Predator, Harry Potter 3, Around the World in 80 Days...

[Justin]

I see.

[Vibroblade]

Yea, Spidey should be two barring an unforseen massive drop in Shrek II. I just can't see Spidey beating the numbers of Shrek II given the target audience of Shrek is probably much larger.

[Mann]

But Spiderman one, beig PG-13 was the top grossing film of its year. It made more money than even Finding Nemo, the highest grossing animated movie of all time.

Spiderman 2 will make I say as much as Shrek 2, the trailer looks like the film is an improvement and capable of repeat viewings.

[kopernikuz]

Originally posted by Mann@May 25 2004, 06:14 PM
ok, first off you attacked the joke to begin with, how else could I have tried to prove it when you villianized a harmles play on words...

style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/huh.gif ... attack? vliianized? style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/crying.gif style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rolleyes.gif Hardly. In fact I made a few more plays on words if you read my post at all. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif My point was you can compare dollars to dollars all day, but you of all people should know the historical track record of R-rated films versus animated kid movies. The audience is wider. Not to mention, some atheists or Budhists or whatever that might watch Shrek that wouldn't give The Passion the time of day. There's no contest. That's all I was discussing.

style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sleeping.gif


Sorry, Justin... I'll move on...

I am really interested in seeing what Spider-Man 2 will do... obviously the first one was a hit, but having the first one as a frame of reference you'll be able to say "It wasn't as good as the first one"... alternatively you could also say "It was much BETTER than the first one"... the first one was able to be judged on its own. I think the trailer looks very good, and I like Doc Oc more than the Green Goblin.

Mann, you're right about the top films this year being in the summer. We certainly seem to have a more blockbuster worthy lineup this summer than we did last summer, no?

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>It made more money than even Finding Nemo, the highest grossing animated movie of all time.[/b][/quote]

Does anyone care to predict if Shrek will beat out Nemo for that title? Personally, I'm gonna say no... knowing a boatload of families (not mine) that think Shrek 1 was a gross, fart-joked film (I don't agree) they don't even plan to see this one. And those same families find Nemo to be a cute, moral, fuzzy tale of fun. I think some of the target audience will be lost to Shrek. Obviously it'll make a mint, that's not what I'm saying... but I'm betting it doesn't quite hit Nemo's record because of it's more "mature" themes... unless of course... more adults WITHOUT kids see Shrek than did Nemo... which is highly possible.

[Vibroblade]

I think it will beat Nemo....And I think it will certainly beat Spiderman. Sequels generally don't do as well as the original....LOTR was an exception but it's rare. ( Matrix was too, but that's a different scenario since the first one was fairly unknown. ) Spidey I had massive hype and a less competitive marketplace opening early in May. I think Spidey II will have harder going but it will still do well.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>But Spiderman one, beig PG-13 was the top grossing film of its year. It made more money than even Finding Nemo, the highest grossing animated movie of all time.
[/b][/quote]

Agreed but that's not what I was saying. Shrek may be G but it appeals to a broader audience than Nema did. Nemo was a kid movie, Shrek has a little something for most age groups. Having seen both, I think Shrek is far superior so maybe I'm just biased.

[Justin]

I think Finding Nemo is a better film than Shrek, but Shrek is funnier. One major difference is that Shrek uses a lot of references to pop-culture and whatnot, and Finding Nemo does not, as far as I can remember.

[JKRich]

Finding Nemo is the best animated movie i have seen.

[RollaFett]

Finding Nemo was highly overrated, IMO. But were talking box-office, not reviews.
That said, I need to see Shrek 2's numbers for this coming weekend to be able to predict whether or not it will topple Nemo's animated record.
Overall, I think that Shrek will beat the Day after Tomorrow this weekend and have a pretty good shot at Nemo.
The Day after Tomorrow just doesn't seem to be anything special.

[Mann]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>Agreed but that's not what I was saying. Shrek may be G but it appeals to a broader audience than Nema did. Nemo was a kid movie, Shrek has a little something for most age groups. Having seen both, I think Shrek is far superior so maybe I'm just biased. [/b][/quote]

alright, but if you want to say something about broader audiences, what was a movie that is PG-13 have that a G rated movie hasn;t? Look at the top grossing movies of all time, they are more PG-13 than anything. Could it be that appeal doesn't just account for this, but quality as well?

[Vibroblade]

Shrek II is killing Nemo in the head to head daly tallies. That's even when not taking into account Shrek's mid-week release ( which puts it further ahead ). Given that next weekend is the biggest in the year, Shrek's second weekend may be close to Nemo's first weekend....Looks to be somewhere in the 220 range after Sunday, almost a hundred million ahead of Nemo ( when counting the mid-week numbers from the Wednesday release and 80 million ahead if the mid-week numbers are ignored ). It should beat Nemo unless is bleeds very fast in the coming weeks.

Agreed GF. Nemo was extremely overated. I can think of quite a few recent animated films that are far superior. It doesn't even deserve mentioning it compared to the Lion King (IMHO). Keep in mind that Nemo isn't even listed in the top fifty highest grossing flicks when accounting for inflation. Snow White, 101 Dalmatians, Fantasia, The Lion King, Jungle Book, Sleeping Beauty, Bambi, and Pinocchio are all ahead of it ( and listed in that order in the top 50 ). If you just want to count "modern" movies of the last 20 years, Lion King still beats it.

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>alright, but if you want to say something about broader audiences, what was a movie that is PG-13 have that a G rated movie hasn;t? Look at the top grossing movies of all time, they are more PG-13 than anything. Could it be that appeal doesn't just account for this, but quality as well? [/b][/quote]

I have no idea what this has to do with my post but I'll try to respond. Most parents see PG-13 ( which is a rather recent addition to the ratings system ) as little more than G. Until recently, we only had G, PG, R, and X. Most of the top grossing movies are rated PG and not PG-13. People still see PG and PG-13 as the same although the government has tried to educate people on the differences.

What I said has nothing to do with quality. Broad appeal and "quality" have little, if any, similarities.

[Vibroblade]

As for what a PG-13 film has that a G doesn't, well the ratings tell us that don't they? violence, sexual innuendo, etc....as sad as it is, most parents don't see anything wrong with their children seeing violence unless it's extremely graphic ( hence R rating ) and even then many don't have a problem with it.

Besides there are far more people over the age 18 than under it. The largest movie-going audience is not children but young adults ages 15-30. So PG-13 doesn't apply at all to them.

[kopernikuz]

Okay, so let's start a weekly contest...

Before noon on Friday, if you want to participate, you need to post in here your predictions for the weekend performances of films.

Guesses in two categories... for example, this week, by noon tomorrow, post here your predictions for:

1) The top five films in the order you predict.

2) The estimated weekend box office for the top film you named.

We'll see who is the closest getting the top 5 right, and then tie breakers will be who comes closest to the actual box office take for the #1 film's three day weekend.

For example:
--------------------------------------------
1. Shrek
2. Day after Tomorrow
3. Troy
4. Raising Helen
5. Van Helsing

Shrek will make 95 million.
--------------------------------------------
This is not my guess, just an example of how to format yours.

What do you think? Guess away!

[D_bot]

If you're interested in a competition I would suggest looking into the Hollywood Stock Exchange (www.hsx.com). I've found it to be fun.

[Justin]

I think Day After Tomorrow will do about 50 million on it's weekend.

[RollaFett]

Ok, I'll give this a try....

1- Shrek 2- $73 million
2- The Day After Tomorrow- $38 million
3- Raising Helen- $25 million
4- Troy- $12 million
5- Soul Plane- $11 million

[Mann]

Guess:

1. Shrek 2- 52 Million
2. The Day After Tomorrow- 34 mil
3. Troy- 15 mil
4. Soul Plane- 10 mil
5. Van Helsing- 6 mil

[kopernikuz]

Anyone else want in? I figure we can let it go past noon... it's not like you can predict a weekend even if there was a way to get the box office numbers from around the country for the first few showings of the day on Friday... LOL... so entries are open until 8pm.


My guesses:

1- Shrek 2- $75 million
2- The Day After Tomorrow
3- Raising Helen
4- Troy
5- Soul Plane

[JKRich]

1- Shrek 2 $70 million
2- The Day After Tomorrow $43 million
3- Raising Helen $24 million
4- Troy $17 million
5- Soul Plane $13.5 million


Just a guess style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/scratchchin.gif

[Mann]

Why the love for Raising Helen? I have seen like a limited amount of marketing for this movie, and Kate Hudson's only success was How to Lose a Guy in Ten Days...

[kopernikuz]

Originally posted by Mann@May 28 2004, 06:05 PM
Why the love for Raising Helen? I have seen like a limited amount of marketing for this movie, and Kate Hudson's only success was How to Lose a Guy in Ten Days...
I guess it depends where you are. I've seen it get a lot of marketing around here... plus there are Christian groups pumping it as a positive film, even Focus on The Family gave it a thumbs up... I think a lot of the Passion crowd (not at ALL the same amount, not what I mean) who'd given up on Hollywood, are now prepared to give movies a second chance, and those kinds of endorsements from those kinds of groups go a long way.

I don't think it'll be much... and it'll only be this weekend... but I think it might make a small mark.

[Justin]

Kate Hudson's been in a lot of stuff and is appealing to a lot of people. I'm sure a lot of people think that the movie looks like it will be good, and the buzz is that it's a good movie.

Also it appeals to women more than stuff like The Day After Tomorrow and Shrek 2.

[Mann]

Actually, Raising Helen is apparently a bad film according to the buzz. It will make it in the top 5 now that friday's estimates are out.

looks like The Day After Tomorrow will beat our estimates since friday was a 24 million opening. it beat Shrek 2.

[Trilogist]

I saw The Day After Tomorrow and all I have to say is ... OH MY GOD I CAN'T WAIT FOR ALEXANDER!! style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

God, what a horribly written film. The special effects were good, though.

[Mann]

Originally posted by Trilogist@May 30 2004, 02:08 AM
I saw The Day After Tomorrow and all I have to say is ... OH MY GOD I CAN'T WAIT FOR ALEXANDER!! style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

That film looks like the worst movie of the year...And I like Colin Farell, but it was just an ugly trailer.

[JediJaina]

I thought Independence Day and Godzilla were crap. Which is why I won't see Day After Tomorrow.

[Justin]

Day After Tommorrow was ok, it was exactly what I expected it to be, a sort of cheesy disaster movie with cool special effects. It was better than Independence Day and Godzilla. But not Stargate! That movie ruled.

And I think Alexander looks really cool, but I think they should have gotten someone besides Colin Ferrel. I like Colin Ferrel, but I think someone else would be better in the role.

[Mann]

What I want to know is how gay they are going to make Alexander. I mean, the hair in this movie is enough, but I want to see if they mention it at all...

[Justin]

Who knows. I thought he was bisexual, not just gay.

[Lord Rocha]

Originally posted by Mann@May 29 2004, 07:57 PM
What I want to know is how gay they are going to make Alexander. I mean, the hair in this movie is enough, but I want to see if they mention it at all...
Yeah, the hair is terrible. What is funny is that there is another Alexander the Great project, I believe with Nicole Kidman and (If I am correct) directed by Oliver Stone.

[JKRich]

^ you are correct and in that film Alexander is portrayed by Leo DiCaprio.I cant wait for Farrels Alexander though..looks great!!!!!!!!!!!

[Mann]

Originally posted by Justin@May 30 2004, 03:02 AM
Who knows. I thought he was bisexual, not just gay.
I think he was gay, but he kept up appearences by being heterosexual as well. It wasn't frowned upon back then.

[Mann]

Originally posted by Lord Rocha+May 30 2004, 03:37 AM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Lord Rocha @ May 30 2004, 03:37 AM)</div><div class='quotemain'> <!--QuoteBegin-Mann@May 29 2004, 07:57 PM
What I want to know is how gay they are going to make Alexander. I mean, the hair in this movie is enough, but I want to see if they mention it at all...
Yeah, the hair is terrible. What is funny is that there is another Alexander the Great project, I believe with Nicole Kidman and (If I am correct) directed by Oliver Stone. [/b][/quote]
not by Oliver Stone, Baz Lurhman, who directed Moulin Rouge (Kidman) and Romeo and Juliet (DiCaprio).

[JKRich]

Alexanders sexuality didnt stop him from conquering the world though.I like Kidman being cast in the other project but Leo style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/scratchchin.gif

[Justin]

Actually, I think DiCaprio would make a better Alexander.

[Mann]

Alexander has to be young and youthful but at the same time very strong and determined. Leo is too pretty to be Alexander I think. I Think Alexander is a role better suited for an unknown talent to shine in. Someone who can break through and pull a Peter O'toole (1962 Alwerence of Arabia).

[Trilogist]

I stil remember the shot of the horse and the elephant (and their respective riders) charging at each other.

[Trilogist]

Originally posted by Justin@May 29 2004, 11:38 PM
Actually, I think DiCaprio would make a better Alexander.
style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/barf.gif

[RollaFett]

Wow, Day After Tomorrow (I guess we can start calling it 'DAT') is doing a lot better than I thought. Estimates have it at $70 million for the weekend.

[Mann]

Much better than I thought as well. I thought it would make alot, but not as much as it had hoped.

Shrek wins out again though. I think I underestiomated this weekend. But when was the last time TWO movies made 70 million in the same weekend? Was it 2002 with AOTC and Spiderman?

[Trilogist]

style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/scratchchin.gif

[Mann]

nevermind, I checked and Spiderman cameout TWO weeks before AOTC, so the two movies with 70 million in one weekend is a first I think.

[RollaFett]

That sounds about right, methinks.

[Vibroblade]

Shrek is well on its way to 400 million. It's ahead of Spiderman's pace by quite a bit now...Of course, Spiderman had the Memorial weekend in its third week of release so it remains to be seen if Shrek II can maintain the lead after next weekend, but I think it will.

Shrek II could eventually find itself in the 3rd or 4th all time spot with 430 million plus.

[JKRich]

Originally posted by Justin@May 30 2004, 12:38 AM
Actually, I think DiCaprio would make a better Alexander.
Please tell me you are joking...right??? style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/huh.gif

[RollaFett]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'> But when was the last time TWO movies made 70 million in the same weekend? Was it 2002 with AOTC and Spiderman? [/b][/quote]

Hell, the estimates I just saw have Shrek at $92 million and DAT at $86 million!
When was the last time to films made over $80 million apiece in the same weekend?!

[Mann]

Memorial Day accounts for the extra stuff. On the three day wekend alone 70 million for two films is outstanding.

[JKRich]

I just got back from seeing Shrek 2.I got to say i realy enjoyed it.I thought it was even funnier than the first one.This movie has a definant shot at beating Nemo.

[RollaFett]

I cannot see how it doesn't beat Nemo.
Good point about the Holiday weekend, Mann, but that's why these studios pick certain dates...it pays off.

[Mann]

yes it does. I Think This weekend is the biggest movie weekend anyway. Why the heck doesn't Star Wars OPEN on memorial day?! Lucas would be rolling in the cash.

[Justin]

And how about Harry Potter this Friday? I think it will do very well.

[kopernikuz]

Originally posted by Lord Rocha+May 29 2004, 10:37 PM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Lord Rocha @ May 29 2004, 10:37 PM)</div><div class='quotemain'> <!--QuoteBegin-Mann@May 29 2004, 07:57 PM
What I want to know is how gay they are going to make Alexander. I mean, the hair in this movie is enough, but I want to see if they mention it at all...
Yeah, the hair is terrible. What is funny is that there is another Alexander the Great project, I believe with Nicole Kidman and (If I am correct) directed by Oliver Stone. [/b][/quote]
Stone directed the one with Colin Farrell. Mann's right, Baz Luhrman is the other one... though it's just in development still, supposed to be released next year.

Well, I guess none of us got the order right for the top 5... those of us who put Raising Helen in there got the 5 correct just not in the right order. Didn't give Troy enough credit I guess. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif

[kopernikuz]

Originally posted by Mann@Jun 1 2004, 01:28 AM
yes it does. I Think This weekend is the biggest movie weekend anyway. Why the heck doesn't Star Wars OPEN on memorial day?! Lucas would be rolling in the cash.
Well, he could end up with a Shrek like situation... he KNOWS the fans will bombard the theater day one... in fact stand in line for a week beforehand in some places... lol... so he's guaranteed a pretty strong opening weekend, so when Memorial Day rolls around he should have another one because it's a big movie weekend. Maybe that's what they're hoping for... I dunno.

(Btw... I didn't mean Shrek's numbers... I meant a big opener and a steady resurgence during the holiday)

But speaking of that... how much do you predict Episode III will pull in opening weekend? Better than AOTC? Better than TPM? Somewhere in between? Worse?

[JKRich]

Who would of thought two movies doing so darn well the same weekend? style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>But speaking of that... how much do you predict Episode III will pull in opening weekend? Better than AOTC? Better than TPM? Somewhere in between? Worse?
[/b][/quote]

III will have a better opening weekend than either. Likely end up with a total gross somewhere between the two. Being billed as the last SW movie will get a little extra from the fans. The rest in dependent on the quality of the film.

<span style="color:red">*do not turn this into a debate thread on the prequel quality. </span>

[JediJaina]

I was surprised that Day After Tomorrow did that well. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/huh.gif

[kopernikuz]

Originally posted by Vibroblade@Jun 3 2004, 11:52 AM
<span style="color:red">*do not turn this into a debate thread on the prequel quality. </span>
Yes, absolutely! I agree. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif


Okay, we're close to another opening weekend. Anyone want to start making their guesses for this weekend?

Will Harry Potter conjure enough magic to stop the Ogre? Or will Shrek manage to pull a hat trick? List your top five predictions in order from 1-5 and the estimated gross of the #1 pick.

Good luck!

[Siamese Sith]

OK Harry Pothead opens tommorow style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/barf.gif , but the one movie I've really been anxious about this summer is Chronicles of Riddick (june 11th). I wonder since Shrek 2 and DAT have done so well, will we see ticket sales slow from the after holiday burnout? I think HP will do well but not the numbers we've seen generated during memorial day weekend. the weekend after next I think we'll see big numbers for CoR and Shrek2, DAT will slip as will HP.
So my top 5 for Monday June 14th hopefully will look like this
1. Chronicles of Riddick
2 Shrek 2
3 Harry Potter
4 Day After Tommorow
5 Troy

[kopernikuz]

Originally posted by Siamese Sith@Jun 3 2004, 12:29 PM
OK Harry Pothead opens tommorow style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/barf.gif , but the one movie I've really been anxious about this summer is Chronicles of Riddick (june 11th). I wonder since Shrek 2 and DAT have done so well, will we see ticket sales slow from the after holiday burnout? I think HP will do well but not the numbers we've seen generated during memorial day weekend. the weekend after next I think we'll see big numbers for CoR and Shrek2, DAT will slip as will HP.
So my top 5 for Monday June 14th hopefully will look like this
1. Chronicles of Riddick
2 Shrek 2
3 Harry Potter
4 Day After Tommorow
5 Troy
Hey hey hey... you're skipping ahead... what's your predictions for THIS week, dude... LOL style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

I have an odd feeling that Harry Potter will do better than the previous two... this is commonly agreed as the best book in the series (matter of opinion of course, but generally the opinion, like ESB in the SW series)... plus I have seen a lot of reviews and hype for it that make it interesting to even non-children. I know a few people who never had a desire to see the first two, but the director (Cuaron) and Gary Oldman and the early reviews have peaked their interest... so it might actually draw a more significant crowd of over-twelves than the previous ones did. I dunno if it will be a sustained interest... but if it's as good as they're saying, word will get around.

[Justin]

Especially since the children are getting older, they appeal to more teenagers in general. I think, lol.

[Mann]

1. Harry POtter- 85 Mil
2. Shrek 2 - 55 mil
3. The Day After Tomorrow- 40 Mil
4. Troy- 8 Mil
5. Raising Helen- 5 Mil

[RollaFett]

Screw it, I underestimated by a lot last week, hoiliday be damned. That said, I'll make some adjustments.....

1- Harry Potter- $93 million
2- Shrek- $54 million
3- DAT- $26 million
4- Troy- $11 million
5- Raising Helen- $7 million

[JKRich]

I'll try again.
1. Harry Potter 79 Million
2. Shrek 2 51 Million
3. The Day After Tomorrow 43 Million
4. Troy 9 Million
5. Raising Helen 6 Million

[Vibroblade]

1) HP: 95 million
2) Shrek II: 45 million
3) DAT: 33 million
4) Raising Helen: 7million
5) Troy: 6 million

[Mann]

bump up those estimates mates, Harry POtter had a 40 million opening day, highest ever.

[JKRich]

^ That is very surprising.I never thought that HP was on same level as LOTR or SW. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif

[Mann]

Originally posted by JKRich@Jun 5 2004, 06:18 PM
^ That is very surprising.I never thought that HP was on same level as LOTR or SW. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif
It has the largest fanbase in the world I believe.

[JediJaina]

I have to agree with Mann. There was a section in the local paper about people lining up around the block to see the movie. It was also that way when the last Harry Potter book came out.

[Seanakin]

Originally posted by JKRich@Jun 5 2004, 11:18 AM
^ That is very surprising.I never thought that HP was on same level as LOTR or SW. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif
Well, PoA kinda does just that, in that it shares the shoddy editing of the LotR films and the egregiously bad scriptwriting of the SW prequels.

But hey, this is what happens when you market movies for a kiddie audience. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif

[Lord Rocha]

Originally posted by Mann+Jun 5 2004, 11:40 AM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mann @ Jun 5 2004, 11:40 AM)</div><div class='quotemain'> <!--QuoteBegin-JKRich@Jun 5 2004, 06:18 PM
^ That is very surprising.I never thought that HP was on same level as LOTR or SW. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif
It has the largest fanbase in the world I believe. [/b][/quote]
I agree. Many many kids all over the entire world, and they say this one is really good unlike the sloppy first two. I wasn't planning on see it, but the critics convinced me to see it.

[JKRich]

Originally posted by Seanakin@Jun 5 2004, 04:51 PM
(Vibroblade @ Jun 3 2004, 11:52 AM)
do not turn this into a debate thread on the prequel quality.

Well, PoA kinda does just that, in that it shares the shoddy editing of the LotR films and the egregiously bad scriptwriting of the SW prequels.


I see i really underestimated the new movies yet again.

[Vibroblade]

The weekend estimates:

1 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $92,645,000
2 Shrek 2 DW $37,000,000
3 The Day After Tomorrow Fox $28,150,000
4 Raising Helen BV $6,675,000
5 Troy WB $5,740,000

My estimates:

1) HP: 95 million
2) Shrek II: 45 million
3) DAT: 33 million
4) Raising Helen: 7million
5) Troy: 6 million

Not too shabby. That might have been the best I ever did estimating movies.

[JKRich]

^ Not even close..just kidding.You did a whole lot better than me.

[RollaFett]

The weekend estimates:

1 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $92,645,000
2 Shrek 2 DW $37,000,000
3 The Day After Tomorrow Fox $28,150,000
4 Raising Helen BV $6,675,000
5 Troy WB $5,740,000

My guesses:
1- Harry Potter- $93 million
2- Shrek- $54 million
3- DAT- $26 million
4- Troy- $11 million
5- Raising Helen- $7 million

Not as close as you Vibes, but I pretty much nailed Harry Potter, and was damn close with DAT.

[Justin]

I got to the theater at 7 yesterday hoping to get a ticket for the 8 o'clock show of Harry Potter if the 7:30 was sold out, but it turned out that the 8 and 8:30 shows were sold out as well. I got a ticket for 9:40 and the line to get in formed around 8:50. Most of the people in line looked to be in their 20's and older.

[JKRich]

I was unable to see HP this weekend for when i did try just about every show was sold out.Ill try again next weekend. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif

[RollaFett]

It seems as though I may be missing the boat on Harry Potter. I haven't read any of the books nor have I seen any of the films. Am I missing out?

[Justin]

Yeah, I think so. The first two movies are ok but aren't great, but the new one is really good, and you sort of have to see the first two to really get the new one.

And I'm sure the books are good, so we're both missing that boat, lol.

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>It seems as though I may be missing the boat on Harry Potter. I haven't read any of the books nor have I seen any of the films. Am I missing out?
[/b][/quote]

I think so GF. I would say that HP is my favorite series of the moment, even ahead of SW and that's saying something. I think people with children seem to like them more than 20 somethings but not be a wide margin. Seems to me that HP captures the heart of adventure much like the original SW and...say The Wizard of OZ did better than more contemporary movies like LOTR. I'm not trying to start a debate on which is better cinema, but from my POV I enjoy the Potter movies more than anything going at present and more than anything since Indiana Jones.

[kopernikuz]

Well, Golla was closest on the estimate for HP... but Vibes wins the game this week as he was the only one with the right top 5 order. The order is the contest and the #1 estimate is the tie breaker...

Great job to both of those guys though, they really came close on the estimates.


Myself... well apparently I couldn't be bothered to guess... LOL. I forgot to enter mine. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

Anyway. Nice job.

Shrek dropped almost 50%. Will Harry Potter maintain momentum? Word of mouth on it right now is that it's excellent...

[Seanakin]

I'm hoping it won't, but seeing as it was dumbed down for kiddie consumption, it'll probably roll on another week or two before something esle grabs their ever-fleeting attentions.

[Vibroblade]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'>I'm hoping it won't, [/b][/quote]

Just out of curiosity, why do you hope it drops?

My guess is that it will have at least a 35% drop next weekend even with the great word of mouth.

[Seanakin]

Because I personally think it's by far the worst of all three installments, and if I were JK Rowling I'd be issuing a public apology for allowing my story to be transposed into cinema in this way.

Other than that I have no opinion. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

[Justin]

Well I think it's the best of the three, and most people I hear from agree with me. I think it will be very successful. It will also do very well when it goes to DVD this holiday season.

[Seanakin]

Eh, such is what happens when you market a movie to a kiddie audience. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif

[Vibroblade]

I saw it and liked it but felt it was the weakest of the three...

It was so determined to be dark that it came out more of a LOTR wannbe than a HP movie...IMHO. Still good though, but I suspect 300 million might be out of reach for such a dark movie.

[kopernikuz]

Originally posted by Seanakin@Jun 7 2004, 11:47 PM
Eh, such is what happens when you market a movie to a kiddie audience. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif
Well... uh... the book is technically for kids. style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif

Though obviously adults enjoy as well.

[Seanakin]

The books are a better form of kiddie-fare, IMO...in that I would imagine they push a lot of kids to advance their reading level in order to understand every layer of nuance that JK puts in these stories.

The movie, however, is like the worst form of kiddie-fare, i.e. brainless hogwash designed to keep the little runts placated (and thereby unchallenged) for 90 minutes or whenever their Ritalin runs out, whichever comes first.

[JKRich]

Getting closer to the highly anticipated sequel to Spidey.What do you think this will bring in its opener.Will it break the record?

[Mann]

Originally posted by JKRich@Jun 8 2004, 11:06 PM
Getting closer to the highly anticipated sequel to Spidey.What do you think this will bring in its opener.Will it break the record?
90 million I think. Not quite as big as the first, bt in the long run will make over 300 mil.

[Seanakin]

And ironically, it may actually be a more complete movie.